#8: What should France's northern fleets (Heligo, London and Brest) do now, spring turn, to have a chance for grabbing another English SC by autumn, without risking England getting a 3rd unit at all?

difficulty: intermediate/advanced

The solution:

England can only take Belgium, Denmark or London. In case of:
- Belgium: France easily takes it back by Autumn, no risk giving England another build.
- Denmark: England might get a build, therefore it's essential to grab another English SC this case
- London: Also essential to grab either Edinbourgh or Liverpol, or get back London

(1) If England takes London from North sea:
- Heligoland should move to North sea
- London retreats to Wales
- Brest irrelevant
-- by Autumn North sea attacks Edinbourgh, Wales attacks Liverpool, one of them succeeds, or if Brest went to EC, France can get back London and have a chance for a 2nd English SC.

(2) If England takes London from Yorkshire:
- London would retreat to wales and take Liverpool by Autumn.
- Also Heligoland to North sea would take away support, therefore foiling the attempt, while Brest likely gets to EC, saving London by Autumn.

(3) If England takes Denmark:
- Heligoland could get to North sea, but couldn't get Edinbourgh, therefore this is a problem. Also England might bounce Germany, and keep his current position.

(4) If England tries to maintain position, so he can take London by Autumn:
- he would probably attack EC and London, as a response to (1) and (2), so EC bounces with Brest and London can't support neither Heligoland nor Brest

So basically France has a problem if England successfully maintains position till autumn.

It was likely England will choose (4) since the rest would have put him into worse positon.
The solution was, London had to move to Wales(!), right away, and Brest should NOT attack EC(!) and Heligo to North sea.
Brest can go to mid-atlantic, in case England doesn't go to EC, that unit can get up to North Atlantic later.
This results:

In case of the 4 possibilities above:
(1) France gets either Liverpool or Edinbourgh, loses London
(2) France gets Liverpool, loses London
(3) France attacks both Liverpool and Edinbourgh, if he loses London, he gets both, otherwise he gets another English SC and keeps London.
(4) In this case England would lose both Liverpool and Edinbourgh and get nothing.

In the real game, see below, (4) has happened giving France another English territory by Autumn.


The irony of the situation, if England did NOTHING, just holding, he might got a 50% chance of getting a new build, as France would have to choose what to do with Wales (go for Liverpool, or back to London). Also if England did nothing, he would surely not lose any territory in this turn.

Conclusion: sometimes the best defense could be doing nothing. And the best attack can be giving the enemy's SC back to him.

The game:

http://www.webdiplomacy.net/board.php?gameID=93618#gamePanel
Autumn, 1910