difficulty: intermediate; phase to come: Autumn, 1914; courtesy of SplitDiplomat
The solution:
France cannot support-hold Berlin, as support can be taken away all from Baltic, Kiel and Munich, while Silesia+Prussia can attack Berlin. However, Baltic can take away support from Prussia (or Kiel can take it away via convoy), Munich from Silesia.But in this case Munich is only safe if Piedmont attacks Tyrolia (so no triple attack can occur against Munich, as both Silesia and Tyrolia is attacked), resulting Ruhr can support-move Burgundy to Munich, to protect Munich, as Munich is moving, meaning it cannot be support held.
This results Heligo can take back Denmark, and the game is finished basically. Well, no. It is not just not finished, but France cannot hold Berlin anymore!
Clearly, France's goal was to force Russia to disband Heligoland, from that point he has won the game. At least that's what he thought.
The plan above has 1 risk: if Russia lets Kiel (or Baltic) to move into Prussia. Assuming Kiel attacks Prussia, worst case is, Kiel actually gets into Prussia and Russia moves (retreats) into Kiel:
- Belgium is in Holland.
- Heligo (rather North Sea) is in Denmark.
- Baltic stays.
1 round later, Burgundy+Ruhr+Berlin hold Munich, saving it. Meanwhile Prussia must attack Silesia to cover Berlin. So Holland can take (and disband) Kiel. There is a risk Russia moves to Sweden from Norway now, to retake Denmark from Kiel with support. But it's not a big problem as Baltic can attack Sweden, to take away support, and Denmark can move to Baltic to bounce Bothnia. The real problem arises, if Russia retreats to Kiel and gets a build. But that's another issue ... and might be solved by grabbing Sweden in time, but probably not.
So if France gets into Prussia from Kiel, he also keeps Berlin, one might think.
Well, no. France still cannot keep Berlin.
What France forgot, and probably others as well, is: Russia can rebuild the disbanded fleet in StP south coast, making it impossible for France to protect Berlin anymore. See the maps below.
I couldn't even find a proper solution, what to do in the previous turn, to save Berlin. It was lost 2 turns earlier at least. I just didn't want to post it as a quiz, because it would be quite complex to write down. But according to the above, you can derive, saving Kiel+Denmark+Berlin+Baltic at the same time is impossble, even 1 round earlier, eventually leading to losing Berlin or giving Russia a build.
France could try to move to Skaggerack, and North sea from Belgium, taking Sweden by spring, but that's also not a 100% solution, as he can lose Sweden or Baltic 1 round later.
France could have kept Berlin (and win) in many ways, from taking Denmark from Edinburgh or building armies earlier and moving Burgundy to Ruhr, 2 phases earlier, in 1913 Spring.
Sorry, which are Russia's 100% moves? Just because France doesn't have any 100% moves does not mean Russia does. If France predicts Prussia will be vacated, France no longer have to spend effort in defending Berlin this move. France can convoy Berlin to Sweden, thus both kill Denmark and shift into Skagerrak, and cover Berlin with Munich in case Silesia moves there. With Sweden falling to France, Russia can no longer build the fleet it needs to get Baltic, and France can convoy back the army in the spring. If France thinks Norway will cover Sweden, they can just skip the convoy and shift into Norway instead of Skagerak and get the same result. Russia can protect against that by attacking Berlin this year, but then France can do other moves. I can't see any 100% on either side, this is a guessing game.
ReplyDeleteCorrection. Russia builds even after losing Sweden, and could take Budapest anyway. However, so does France, and the army now in Sweden could stay there without Russia having a foolproof way to get Berlin before a new army from Paris could shift the line to fully protected. Meanwhile Russia either builds that fleet in StP south coast and lose Norway to never get it back, or builds north coast or army which won't take Baltic back. If France takes Norway instead it's basically the same.
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